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Research Project Report 상세보기
A Study on the Korea Fisheries Outlook and Simulation Modelz
Report No. 2013-17 Research Manager Lee Hun Dong
File


A Study on the Korea Fisheries Outlook and Simulation Model


1. Purpose
○ The study is focused on upgrading ‘KMI-FSM (Fisheries Simulation Model) 2004’ to forecast short- and mid-term fisheries major index and to analyze external shocks or various policies effects for the Korean Fisheries sector. 
- The study built a new forecast model which resolved limitations and problems of the KMI-FSM 2004. This previous model has not been adequately managed since its establishment in 2004.
- It aims to build an improved fisheries forecast model which satisfies theoretical consistency, practicality and policy usability for its use in relevant policies and research.
  - Especially, it presents various possible policy simulations, for example, impacts of variations in international oil price or exchange rate.


2. Methodologies and Feature
1) Methodologies
○ To build statistics database on macro economy, fisheries production, producer price index and consumer price index, import and export, fisheries household economy
○ To build a simultaneous equations model with structural equation system and to analyze results based on the Regression Analysis of Time Series (8.0 Version) 
○ To consult with outside experts on methodologies for fish stock estimation which is necessary for fisheries production forecast
2) Feature
○ The study upgraded limitations and problems of the KMI-FSM 2004 model as follows;
-To expand categorization of fisheries from three (fish, shellfish and seaweed) to six (fish, crustacean, shellfish, mollusks, other fisheries and seaweed)
-To re-estimate individual equations which compose the supply/demand model on six fisheries types, the fisheries household economy model and the aggregated index model


3. Results
1) Summary
○ After reviewing important factors such as domestic and international changes and the study reflected them in the new model, the KMI-FSM 2013.
-Fisheries demand-supply status and changes in fisheries management condition are inputted in equations of the new model.
○ The study established basic statistics database and presented overall structure of the KMI-FSM 2013 and structures of its subordinate models.
-A total of 300 databases were built on macro economy, fisheries production, fisheries prices, import, export, fishing village (household) economy and others.
-The study presented individual structure of the fisheries production function model, the supply-demand model on six types of fisheries, the fishing village economy model and the fisheries aggregated index model as well as overall structure of the KMI-FSM 2013.
○ The study estimated, tested, simulated and predicted individual equation and simultaneous equations of the KMI-FSM 2013.
-It estimated around 70 individual equations with the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS). According to the results, the new model found superior to the 2004 model as for explanation power and statistical significance.
-The estimation of simultaneous equation model showed that the new model has good suitability and prediction capability. (RMSPE, which determines suitability of prediction, is within 10 %.)
-According to the simulation under the assumption of increasing scenarios of international oil prices, fisheries production and fishing village/household economy indexes are to be negatively(-) affected as previously predicted. In particular, domestic marine fishery (littoral sea fishery) is under relatively bigger impact than other fisheries types.
○ The study suggested future usages of the new model and policy proposals. 
- Future usages: The model can be used for policy simulation which analyses impact on macroeconomic changes and fisheries policies ex-ante or ex-post.
-Policy suggestions: Overall improvement of fisheries supply-demand statistics, in-depth analyses on seafood product yield rate compared to raw fish (raw material) in the fisheries import/export sector, writing and announcement of seafood supply-demand table and support for operation of fisheries forecast models

2) Policy contribution
○ Results of the new model and relevant data can be provided to the government, which would support governmental policies.
-The government can set short- and mid-term goals for policy projects according to major fisheries index forecasts by the model. It can also use the data in preparing various master plans for fisheries sector.
3) Expected benefits
○ The new model provides more scientific and more rational forecasts on major fisheries indexes in the short- and mid-term.
-Such forecasts can be made on major fisheries indexes, including added value of fisheries industry, total fishery production, fisheries import-export volume and amount, fisheries prices (producer and consumer), fishery household income, fishing villages and fishing population.
○ The study holds academic significance as the basic study on fisheries forecast.
-Establishment of forecast models is active in the general economy and agricultural sector based on econometrical analyses. However, due to uncertainty of fisheries sector, research on establishing fisheries forecast models have been insufficient.
-This study will boost academic discussions on fisheries forecast models in the future.

Research Project Report 상세보기
A Study on the Korea Fisheries Outlook and Simulation Modelz
Report No. 2013-17 Research Manager Lee Hun Dong
File


A Study on the Korea Fisheries Outlook and Simulation Model


1. Purpose
○ The study is focused on upgrading ‘KMI-FSM (Fisheries Simulation Model) 2004’ to forecast short- and mid-term fisheries major index and to analyze external shocks or various policies effects for the Korean Fisheries sector. 
- The study built a new forecast model which resolved limitations and problems of the KMI-FSM 2004. This previous model has not been adequately managed since its establishment in 2004.
- It aims to build an improved fisheries forecast model which satisfies theoretical consistency, practicality and policy usability for its use in relevant policies and research.
  - Especially, it presents various possible policy simulations, for example, impacts of variations in international oil price or exchange rate.


2. Methodologies and Feature
1) Methodologies
○ To build statistics database on macro economy, fisheries production, producer price index and consumer price index, import and export, fisheries household economy
○ To build a simultaneous equations model with structural equation system and to analyze results based on the Regression Analysis of Time Series (8.0 Version) 
○ To consult with outside experts on methodologies for fish stock estimation which is necessary for fisheries production forecast
2) Feature
○ The study upgraded limitations and problems of the KMI-FSM 2004 model as follows;
-To expand categorization of fisheries from three (fish, shellfish and seaweed) to six (fish, crustacean, shellfish, mollusks, other fisheries and seaweed)
-To re-estimate individual equations which compose the supply/demand model on six fisheries types, the fisheries household economy model and the aggregated index model


3. Results
1) Summary
○ After reviewing important factors such as domestic and international changes and the study reflected them in the new model, the KMI-FSM 2013.
-Fisheries demand-supply status and changes in fisheries management condition are inputted in equations of the new model.
○ The study established basic statistics database and presented overall structure of the KMI-FSM 2013 and structures of its subordinate models.
-A total of 300 databases were built on macro economy, fisheries production, fisheries prices, import, export, fishing village (household) economy and others.
-The study presented individual structure of the fisheries production function model, the supply-demand model on six types of fisheries, the fishing village economy model and the fisheries aggregated index model as well as overall structure of the KMI-FSM 2013.
○ The study estimated, tested, simulated and predicted individual equation and simultaneous equations of the KMI-FSM 2013.
-It estimated around 70 individual equations with the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS). According to the results, the new model found superior to the 2004 model as for explanation power and statistical significance.
-The estimation of simultaneous equation model showed that the new model has good suitability and prediction capability. (RMSPE, which determines suitability of prediction, is within 10 %.)
-According to the simulation under the assumption of increasing scenarios of international oil prices, fisheries production and fishing village/household economy indexes are to be negatively(-) affected as previously predicted. In particular, domestic marine fishery (littoral sea fishery) is under relatively bigger impact than other fisheries types.
○ The study suggested future usages of the new model and policy proposals. 
- Future usages: The model can be used for policy simulation which analyses impact on macroeconomic changes and fisheries policies ex-ante or ex-post.
-Policy suggestions: Overall improvement of fisheries supply-demand statistics, in-depth analyses on seafood product yield rate compared to raw fish (raw material) in the fisheries import/export sector, writing and announcement of seafood supply-demand table and support for operation of fisheries forecast models

2) Policy contribution
○ Results of the new model and relevant data can be provided to the government, which would support governmental policies.
-The government can set short- and mid-term goals for policy projects according to major fisheries index forecasts by the model. It can also use the data in preparing various master plans for fisheries sector.
3) Expected benefits
○ The new model provides more scientific and more rational forecasts on major fisheries indexes in the short- and mid-term.
-Such forecasts can be made on major fisheries indexes, including added value of fisheries industry, total fishery production, fisheries import-export volume and amount, fisheries prices (producer and consumer), fishery household income, fishing villages and fishing population.
○ The study holds academic significance as the basic study on fisheries forecast.
-Establishment of forecast models is active in the general economy and agricultural sector based on econometrical analyses. However, due to uncertainty of fisheries sector, research on establishing fisheries forecast models have been insufficient.
-This study will boost academic discussions on fisheries forecast models in the future.

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