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Research Project Report

Research Project Report 상세보기
The Computable General Equilibrium Model for Shipping and Port Policy Analysis
Report No. 2013-05 Research Manager Lee Min Kyu
File


The Computable General Equilibrium Model for Shipping and Port Policy Analysis


1. Purpose
○ The study aims to build a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) and a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model focused on the shipping and port sector in Korea and to analyze spillover effects of shipping and port policies.
-The study referred to the Korean Input-Output table (I/O table) of the latest year (2010) and integrated national income accounts, household survey data and transportation statistics to build a SAM focused on shipping and port sector.
-Based on the SAM, it decided the specification of consumption functions and production functions to develop the CGE model.
-It analyzed spillover effects according to shipping and port policy scenarios such as investment volume change, higher technology efficiency and indirect tax cut.
-The results can be used as significant information which proves validity of each shipping and port policy as well as prioritizes them.


2. Methodologies and Feature
1) Methodologies
○ A comprehensive review on international and domestic studies regarding impacts of the shipping and port policies and CGM models
○ To investigate the current shipping and port policies promoted by Korean government
○ To quantitatively explore spillover effects of each policy scenario with the SAM and the CGE model analyses
2) Feature
○ The study suggested a CGE model which considered interdependence of economic players, while many policy analysis models had failed to reflect characteristics of shipping and port sector. Such CGE model can become an effective tool in evaluating validity of government policies and policy priority.
○ The study opened raw data of the SAM for the public and explained the CGE model development in detail, which will facilitate studies on SAM and CGE model.


3. Results
1) Summary
○ The study used the Korean Input-Output Table (2010) in combination with household survey data and built a SAM according to ten labor classes. 
- It re-categorized the whole industry into 12 sub-industries with focus on shipping and port industry. 
- It estimated government consumption expenditures out of the consolidated budget balance.
- The classification of workers in shipping and port industry according to labor class showed that those in equipment/machinery control or assembly accounted for the highest share (44.4%), followed by office workers (21.5%) and laborers (9.7%).
○ With an SAM analysis, the study estimated spillover effects of investment into each shipping and port sector such as coastal transportation, ocean transportation, port construction, port operation and shipping port support.
-The SAM multiplier analysis was focused on comprehensive transactions between all economic players.
- Investment into port construction and port operation turned out to have greater production inducement effects, household income inducement effects and government tax revenue inducement effects than other investments.
○ The study referred to results of the CGE model analysis to estimate spillover effects of each shipping and policy scenario.
-KRW 1 trillion investments into costal transportation pull up GDP by 0.021%.
-10% increase in technology efficiency of shipping and port support sector increases GDP by 0.031%.
2) Policy contribution
○ The results can be used as significant information to analyze spillover effects of shipping and port policies.
○ The CGE model can replace the Input-Output model for estimation on spillover effects of shipping and port development projects.
○ The models can become effective tools which help to choose policy measures in accordance with governmental policy goals.
3) Expected benefits
○ The study will activate application of the CGE model as a model to analyze shipping and port policies.
-It presented possible application of new methods against the Input-Output model.
○ The study will facilitate discussion on the CGE model for shipping and port sector.
-It established a SAM specialized in shipping and port sector and presented raw data, which would give a boost to relevant studies.

Research Project Report 상세보기
The Computable General Equilibrium Model for Shipping and Port Policy Analysis
Report No. 2013-05 Research Manager Lee Min Kyu
File


The Computable General Equilibrium Model for Shipping and Port Policy Analysis


1. Purpose
○ The study aims to build a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) and a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model focused on the shipping and port sector in Korea and to analyze spillover effects of shipping and port policies.
-The study referred to the Korean Input-Output table (I/O table) of the latest year (2010) and integrated national income accounts, household survey data and transportation statistics to build a SAM focused on shipping and port sector.
-Based on the SAM, it decided the specification of consumption functions and production functions to develop the CGE model.
-It analyzed spillover effects according to shipping and port policy scenarios such as investment volume change, higher technology efficiency and indirect tax cut.
-The results can be used as significant information which proves validity of each shipping and port policy as well as prioritizes them.


2. Methodologies and Feature
1) Methodologies
○ A comprehensive review on international and domestic studies regarding impacts of the shipping and port policies and CGM models
○ To investigate the current shipping and port policies promoted by Korean government
○ To quantitatively explore spillover effects of each policy scenario with the SAM and the CGE model analyses
2) Feature
○ The study suggested a CGE model which considered interdependence of economic players, while many policy analysis models had failed to reflect characteristics of shipping and port sector. Such CGE model can become an effective tool in evaluating validity of government policies and policy priority.
○ The study opened raw data of the SAM for the public and explained the CGE model development in detail, which will facilitate studies on SAM and CGE model.


3. Results
1) Summary
○ The study used the Korean Input-Output Table (2010) in combination with household survey data and built a SAM according to ten labor classes. 
- It re-categorized the whole industry into 12 sub-industries with focus on shipping and port industry. 
- It estimated government consumption expenditures out of the consolidated budget balance.
- The classification of workers in shipping and port industry according to labor class showed that those in equipment/machinery control or assembly accounted for the highest share (44.4%), followed by office workers (21.5%) and laborers (9.7%).
○ With an SAM analysis, the study estimated spillover effects of investment into each shipping and port sector such as coastal transportation, ocean transportation, port construction, port operation and shipping port support.
-The SAM multiplier analysis was focused on comprehensive transactions between all economic players.
- Investment into port construction and port operation turned out to have greater production inducement effects, household income inducement effects and government tax revenue inducement effects than other investments.
○ The study referred to results of the CGE model analysis to estimate spillover effects of each shipping and policy scenario.
-KRW 1 trillion investments into costal transportation pull up GDP by 0.021%.
-10% increase in technology efficiency of shipping and port support sector increases GDP by 0.031%.
2) Policy contribution
○ The results can be used as significant information to analyze spillover effects of shipping and port policies.
○ The CGE model can replace the Input-Output model for estimation on spillover effects of shipping and port development projects.
○ The models can become effective tools which help to choose policy measures in accordance with governmental policy goals.
3) Expected benefits
○ The study will activate application of the CGE model as a model to analyze shipping and port policies.
-It presented possible application of new methods against the Input-Output model.
○ The study will facilitate discussion on the CGE model for shipping and port sector.
-It established a SAM specialized in shipping and port sector and presented raw data, which would give a boost to relevant studies.

이전글, 다음글 읽기
이전글 A Study on the Impact of FTAs on Port Cargo Volume
다음글 An Economic Validity Analysis on Marine Transportation Safety Facility