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- [항만 > 항만정책연구실]2020-01-07 08:11:14/ 조회수 6317
- ■ 2020년 심각한 도전에도 불구하고 해운산업은 낙관적일 것으로 전망 (12)
- - 회계 및 기업 자문 회사인 BDO에 따르면 해운 산업은 새로운 10년을 맞이하면서 해운산업의 낙관적인 전망이 우세한 실정이다. 해운업계의 신뢰도는 2019년 말에 높았고, 세계 GDP의 전반적인 둔화에도 불구하고, 업계의 서비스에 대한 수요는 여전히 강한 반면, 새로운 건축 주문의 위축과 지속적인 재활용의 흐름은 공급을 통제하게 했다.
- BDO의 운송 및 운송 파트너인 리차드 그리너도 지난해는 수에즈 운하의 개통 150주년이 되는 해로, 여러 면에서 세계 해운시장의 행동혁명에 일조했다고 언급했다. 그리너는 "이제 새로운 10년이 시작될 무렵에는 전망에 비견될 만한 것이 없지만, 그럼에도 불구하고 오프닝에 있어서 매우 중요한 근본적인 변화가 많이 일어나고 있으며, 게다가 향후 10년간 산업의 운명에 대해 낙관적으로 생각해야 할 여러 가지 이유가 있다"고 말했다.
- "그럼에도 불구하고, 배송은 새로운 규정을 준수할 필요성뿐만 아니라, 가까운 미래에 몇몇 심각한 도전에 직면해 있다. 환경사회지배구조(ESG)는 점점 더 중요해질 것이다. 그는 "IMO 2020이 발효됨에 따라 연료가격 차이는 새로운 10년 중 첫째 날부터 중요한 요인이 되고 있으며, 화물운송료가 이에 따른 증가된 비용을 충당할 수 있을 것인지에 대해 알아보는 것이 유익할 것"이라고 말했다.
- 그리너는 비록 낮은 유황 연료의 출하가 제품 유조선의 거래를 증가시키겠지만, 드라이독의 IMO 2020 스크러버 리폼은 계속해서 물 밖으로 톤수를 유지할 것이라고 덧붙였다. "다른 곳에서는 운영비가 오를 것으로 예측되는 반면 지정학과 무역전쟁과 제재는 그들의 관습적인 영향력을 계속 발휘할 것이다. 새로운 리스 회계기준이 시행되고 있는 최초의 완전한 재무보고기간은 의심할 여지없이 업계 일부에게는 더 큰 대차대조표를 보게 될 것이다"라고 그리너는 말했다.
- "우리는 이제 브렉시트가 정말로 브렉시트를 의미한다는 것을 알고 있지만, 브렉시트 그 자체가 정말로 의미하는 것은 무엇인가? 2020년에는 미국, 이집트, 그리스, 홍콩, 뉴질랜드, 폴란드, 싱가포르, 베네수엘라를 포함한 다수의 대통령 및 국회의원 선거가 예정되어 있다. 각각은 운송에 긍정적 또는 부정적 영향을 미칠 가능성이 있다. "새로운 10년이 시작될 무렵 해운업계가 직면하고 있는 그 밖의 문제들로는 환율 변동성이 있으며, 미국 금리가 계속 하락할 것인가 하는 문제가 있다. LIBOR는 2021년 말까지는 교체되지 않겠지만 준비할 시간은 지금이라고 말했다.
- "아마도 가장 큰 도전은 선박과 엔진 설계에서 기술 혁신을 유지하고 증가시키고 빅 데이터 및 인공지능(AI)과 같은 것을 통해 필요한 기술을 활용할 필요성과 더불어 미래의 선원들을 위한 계획을 잊지 말아야 할 필요성"이라고 그리너는 지적했다. "수십 년에 걸쳐, 대부분의 시장은 역사적으로 떨어질 때마다 자주 상승한다. 지난 10년간 해운은 많은 사람들이 예상한 것보다 더 잘 풍화했고, 그래서 새로운 선박에 더 강한 풍력으로 진입했다. "만약 그것이 직면하고 있는 금융, 기술, 그리고 규제적인 문제들을 해결할 수 있다면, 그것은 계속해서 기존 투자자들과 신규 투자자들 모두에게 매력적일 것이다,"라고 그는 말했다.
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