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Research Project Report

Research Project Report 상세보기
Research on Forecasting Model of Container Seaborne Flows - Using Bayesian Methodology -
Report No. 2018-11 Research Manager Byung Wook, Ko
File

▸ In all the three Bayesian methods, about 60 cases show some well-explained results, which means that among the 4 determinants, at least 3 shows the expected signs.
- Also, because this study uses the so-called uninformative prior information, the Bayesian methods produce the very similar results with those of classical OLS’s.
▸ For example, the Korea-US route shows the following ones:
- As shown in the above table, the empirical results show that the effects of GDP, export, and exchange rate are positive but the effect of interest rate is negative, which is the same as the theoretically-expected signs.
▸ When we uses these forecasting models, the forecasting accuracy is better than that of the reference model, AR(1) model, in both of in-sample and out-of-sample cases.

Research Project Report 상세보기
Research on Forecasting Model of Container Seaborne Flows - Using Bayesian Methodology -
Report No. 2018-11 Research Manager Byung Wook, Ko
File

▸ In all the three Bayesian methods, about 60 cases show some well-explained results, which means that among the 4 determinants, at least 3 shows the expected signs.
- Also, because this study uses the so-called uninformative prior information, the Bayesian methods produce the very similar results with those of classical OLS’s.
▸ For example, the Korea-US route shows the following ones:
- As shown in the above table, the empirical results show that the effects of GDP, export, and exchange rate are positive but the effect of interest rate is negative, which is the same as the theoretically-expected signs.
▸ When we uses these forecasting models, the forecasting accuracy is better than that of the reference model, AR(1) model, in both of in-sample and out-of-sample cases.

이전글, 다음글 읽기
이전글 A Study on the Governance Structure of Shipping Companies and the Relationship between their Business type and Performance
다음글 A Study on the Introduction of the Scientific Investigation Systems for Analysing a Maritime Accident