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Research Project Report

Research Project Report 상세보기
A Study on the Development of KMI-Fishereis Outlook and Simulation Model(FOSiM((1/2) - Focused on Aquaculture Forecasting Model -
Report No. 2018-05 Research Manager Heong Dong, Lee
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▸ Chapter two of this study looks into the status of establishing forecasting models in agriculture and fisheries sectors, while reviewing distinctive characteristics and limitations of building a forecasting model for the aquaculture industry.
▸ Chapter three contains basic directions of building the KMI- FOSiM, a forecasting model for aquaculture, while including the establishment of basic statistics DB and the structure of Aquaculture Module.
- Basic directions of building the model are as follows: (a) shifting to a species-based model, (b) drawing equilibrium price based on a recursive form, (c) shifting the operation and management of the model to excel-based one and (d) selecting a total of nine aquaculture species.
- This chapter suggests the structure of the KMI-FOSiM aquaculture model as well as a structural map(a tentative suggestion) of the overall model when the tasks of 2nd year are completed.
▸ As the core of the study, chapter four presents the results of estimation and forecast conducted by the KMI-FOSiM aquaculture forecasting model.
- Estimation for individual equation was conducted by making the following categories: macroeconomic variables and prices of input, functions of aquaculture production, inverse demand functions, export and import demand functions per species, and functions of aquaculture households.
- The predictability of model was tested based on such as RMSPE, MAPE and Theil’s U coefficients. Although some variables showed low predictability, the overall value of RMSPE was deducted within the range of 10%, showing a relatively solid predictability.
Research Project Report 상세보기
A Study on the Development of KMI-Fishereis Outlook and Simulation Model(FOSiM((1/2) - Focused on Aquaculture Forecasting Model -
Report No. 2018-05 Research Manager Heong Dong, Lee
File


▸ Chapter two of this study looks into the status of establishing forecasting models in agriculture and fisheries sectors, while reviewing distinctive characteristics and limitations of building a forecasting model for the aquaculture industry.
▸ Chapter three contains basic directions of building the KMI- FOSiM, a forecasting model for aquaculture, while including the establishment of basic statistics DB and the structure of Aquaculture Module.
- Basic directions of building the model are as follows: (a) shifting to a species-based model, (b) drawing equilibrium price based on a recursive form, (c) shifting the operation and management of the model to excel-based one and (d) selecting a total of nine aquaculture species.
- This chapter suggests the structure of the KMI-FOSiM aquaculture model as well as a structural map(a tentative suggestion) of the overall model when the tasks of 2nd year are completed.
▸ As the core of the study, chapter four presents the results of estimation and forecast conducted by the KMI-FOSiM aquaculture forecasting model.
- Estimation for individual equation was conducted by making the following categories: macroeconomic variables and prices of input, functions of aquaculture production, inverse demand functions, export and import demand functions per species, and functions of aquaculture households.
- The predictability of model was tested based on such as RMSPE, MAPE and Theil’s U coefficients. Although some variables showed low predictability, the overall value of RMSPE was deducted within the range of 10%, showing a relatively solid predictability.
이전글, 다음글 읽기
이전글 A Study on Global Competitiveness of Major Associated Industries in the Fisheries Industry
다음글 A Study on Resources Circulation for Marine Debris of Aquaculture Farms